Consequences of the President’s absolutist action on October 26thand after are already apparent. They include political instability and insecurity, paralysis of the administration, public servants being harassed by the struggle between two rival camps claiming to be the legitimate government, flight of capital abroad, slowing down of foreign investments and grants, diminishing tourist arrivals, erosion of the international reputation of the country and worsening of foreign relations.
Dissolution has not helped to solve any one of these harmful effects. The new danger is a tug of war between the legislature and the executive with the possibility of it spilling over to the judiciary. From then open confrontation in the streets is not far off. It is the last that should be avoided at a stage when people are not inclined to rise up in revolt.
How precarious is our economy? Rupee has depreciated y 12.9 percent since the beginning of 2018. Still there is no end to the decline. We will have to pay $ 4billion as foreign debt payments 1n 2019 – 21. About 90 percent of the government’s income goes to pay foreign debts. We are paying for the folly of spending foreign loans and grants for consumption purposes instead of investment in productive industries. Our imports exceed exports and hence export orientation has failed to bring positive results. Both trade balance and balance of payments are negative. Investments in social infrastructure stand threatened besides being inadequate. More and more burdens will be placed on the pepe as the economy worsens. Malnutrition which is quite high among the under five children will escalate. Rural indebtedness and estate poverty would increase. There is no silver lining too.
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